Neural network models - a novel tool for predicting the efficacy of growth hormone (GH) therapy in children with short stature.

INTRODUCTION: The leading method for prediction of growth hormone (GH) therapy effectiveness are multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Best of our knowledge, we are the first to apply artificial neural networks (ANN) to solve this problem. For ANN there is no necessity to assume the functions linking independent and dependent variables. The aim of study is to compare ANN and MLR models of GH therapy effectiveness.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Analysis comprised the data of 245 GH-deficient children (170 boys) treated with GH up to final height (FH). Independent variables included: patients' height, pre-treatment height velocity, chronological age, bone age, gender, pubertal status, parental heights, GH peak in 2 stimulation tests, IGF-I concentration. The output variable was FH.

RESULTS: For testing dataset, MLR model predicted FH SDS with average error (RMSE) 0.64 SD, explaining 34.3% of its variability; ANN model derived on the same pre-processed data predicted FH SDS with RMSE 0.60 SD, explaining 42.0% of its variability; ANN model derived on raw data predicted FH with RMSE 3.9 cm (0.63 SD), explaining 78.7% of its variability.

CONCLUSION: ANN seem to be valuable tool in prediction of GH treatment effectiveness, especially since they can be applied to raw clinical data.