The ABCD2 score may underestimate the short-term risk of stroke in Chinese population: A meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: The ABCD2 score has been commonly used to triage patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) who are at high risk for imminent stroke. However, its accuracy in predicting short-term stroke risk among TIA patients in China remains unclear.

METHODS: All eligible studies published up to May 2014 were identified by searching Medline, PubMed, Embase, the China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI) and the China Biological Medicine Database (CBM-disc), as well as unpublished articles manually scanned. The strength of the associations between treatments and outcomes was estimated by incorporated risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using the Mantel-Haenszel statistical method.

RESULTS: Eight and 32 studies, which validated the value for predicting the risk of stroke 2 and 7 days after TIA respectively, were included. We calculated the RRs and CIs for 2- and 7-day prediction for stroke (low: RR=0.43, 95% CI=0.17-1.10, I2=0%; moderate: RR=0.42, 95% CI=0.26-0.67, I2=0%; high: RR=0.32, 95% CI=0.21-0.48, I2=0%; and low: RR=0.29, 95% CI=0.20-0.44, I2=0%; moderate: RR=0.27, 95% CI=0.23-0.33, I2=0%; high: RR=0.22, 95% CI=0.18-0.27, I2=1%).

CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis indicated that the ABCD2 score may highly under-predict the short-term occurrence of stroke after TIA for the Chinese population compared with the original model derived from Caucasian populations, which may lead to neglect of the short-term risk for stroke in the clinical practice.